As computing capital expenditures enter the phase of "uncontrolled growth," the artificial intelligence bottleneck has shifted from GPU production to raw materials in the PCB supply chain.
Change: from volume recovery to complexity-based value
For years, the electronics industry used the volume of shipments to judge recovery. However, the era of artificial intelligence has destroyed this logic. While server shipments show moderate growth (~4%), Value per unit The transition from the GB200 architecture to the next-generation GB300 architecture pushed the PCB layers, thickness, and material requirements to their physical limits.
In short: the era of artificial intelligence is no longer about who has the most capacity, but who controls it. The rarest material.
1. The Scaling War: "Uncontrolled" Capex Growth
Cloud Service Providers (CSP) are in a relentless AI arms race. CSP capital expenditures are expected to increase due to infrastructure demands and regulatory changes. 90 percent by 2026This is not a periodic improvement. This is a fundamental restructuring of the global computing infrastructure.
2. Material crisis: real hardship
This report highlights an important fact: the shortage is not in PCB manufacturing, but in PCB production upstream materials ecosystemSeveral key components face wide supply and demand gaps:
- HVLP4 copper foil: Very low yields limit supply. The predicted supply and demand gap of 43-48% It is expected by 2026-2027.
- Quartz cloth (Q glass): A critical material for M9-level high-speed boards. The potential supply gap could be exceeded 60% Until 2027
- High level drilling pins: As the hardness of the material and the number of layers increase, the consumption of the drill pin has increased up to 6 times, while the supply is problematic.
3. ABF substrate: "advanced process" packaging
As the areas of AI chips expand, they consume significantly more ABF substrate (Ajinomoto Build-up Film).This has become the new "choke point" for the industry:
- Supply gap: 26% in 2027 and potentially predicted 46 percent by 2028.
- Strategic lock: Major Western customers are pre-booking capacity, forcing ASIC vendors to scramble for materials.
4. Change in the industry: new hierarchy
The dominance of mobile-based PCB giants is being challenged. The AI server boom is promoting Tier-2 manufacturers with specialized “thick board” capabilities. Additionally, Production capacity abroad AI has become a prerequisite for serving high-end customers and creates a new barrier to entry.
Conclusion: era of complete scarcity
Artificial intelligence has not simplified the industry. It has brought the supply chain into a new phase "Complete lack." Competition has shifted from innovation in architecture to a battle to provide high-quality materials and substrate capacity. In this new cycle, pricing power belongs only to those who hold the key to the material bottleneck.